The landscape for palladium is shifting, and Nornickel is poised to capitalize on this transformation. As the world’s largest palladium producer, Nornickel is taking a proactive approach to navigate the impending decline in demand from traditional sectors, particularly the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle market. With the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), the company anticipates a significant drop in palladium consumption—up to 47 tons by 2030 in China alone, which is a staggering 29% decrease.
But rather than burying its head in the sand, Nornickel is pivoting its strategy, focusing on emerging technologies that could potentially revitalize demand for palladium. The company is actively collaborating with Chinese universities and industrial partners to explore innovative applications for the metal, particularly in hydrogen production and water purification. Vice President Vitaly Busko emphasizes this shift, stating, “We expect that these projects have the potential for at least 15 tons of long-term additional demand for palladium and will gradually start to be reflected in market analysts’ forecasts.” This is a clear signal that Nornickel is not just reacting to market trends but is also looking to shape them.
China, as the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, is at the forefront of this green transition. The country’s rapid development in hydrogen technology presents a unique opportunity for Nornickel. As Busko notes, “In terms of hydrogen and green chemistry, China is developing much faster than the rest of the world. In this sense, the interest is significant.” This strategic focus could open new avenues for palladium use, especially as the metal finds applications in green chemistry processes, ammonia production, and even in oil refining.
Despite the current market surplus expected by 2026, with analysts predicting a surplus of 20-40 tons, Nornickel’s proactive measures could mitigate the impact of this downturn. The company aims to create new demand for an additional 40-50 tons of palladium, a bold ambition in the face of declining traditional consumption. The forecasted emergence of 5-10 tons of new demand in 2026-27 is indicative of the company’s confidence in its strategic direction.
Moreover, Nornickel isn’t just resting on its laurels in China. The company is exploring new markets in the Middle East, Brazil, and Malaysia, further diversifying its reach. It’s also looking closer to home, planning to supply palladium for fibreglass production and anticipating increased domestic use in water purification technologies.
While Nornickel may not be directly impacted by Western sanctions, its pivot to Asia—where over 52% of its sales now occur—highlights a strategic response to global market dynamics. The company’s projected production of 82-85 tons of palladium in 2024 underscores its commitment to maintaining a robust supply chain while adapting to changing demand.
The future of palladium is uncertain, but Nornickel’s innovative strategies and partnerships could play a pivotal role in shaping the metal’s trajectory. As the industry grapples with the implications of a shifting automotive landscape and the rise of green technologies, Nornickel’s forward-thinking approach may just position it as a leader in a new era of palladium consumption.
